Initiating dialogue in a politically cross-cutting context: The winner effect on discussion network dynamics

The act of initiating dialogue is crucial yet risky in settings with clear ideological divides. The winner effect may lower this barrier by elevating political efficacy, yet its manifestation in actual dialogical interactions remains underexplored. We investigate the winner effect’s association with discussion network dynamics in a politically heterogeneous online community with an ideologically unbalanced numerical composition. Through relational event modeling of micro-temporal conversational ties surrounding a presidential election, we demonstrate that individuals became dominant dialogue initiators after attaining winner status, despite being a numerical minority. For minority members lacking social endorsement from the community, the winner effect alone was insufficient to facilitate discursive participation, indicating the need for multifaceted empowerment. Notably, homophilous dialogical patterns weakened after minorities’ status elevation, suggesting that reduced power disparities can facilitate cross-cutting exposure. This study uncovers how the winner effect manifests not only in “what individuals perceive” but also in “how they communicate.”