Long-term evolution of land resource assets and liabilities in Poyang Lake Basin based on ecological footprint and ecosystem service value perspectives

Accurate land resource assets and liabilities accounting is essential for sustainable regional development. This study integrates the ecological footprint (EF) model with ecosystem service value (ESV) theory to comprehensively assess the physical quantity and value changes of land resources in the Poyang Lake Basin (PYLB) from 1985 to 2022. The optimized EF parameters indicate that water bodies exhibit the highest equilibrium factor (mean = 2.420 over 1985–2022), and yield factors for all land-use types are greater than 1, suggesting that the ecosystem service capacity of the PYLB exceeds the national average for corresponding land types. The results indicate that while the total land asset value increased, significant shifts occurred in its distribution. The physical quantity of land assets in the basin increased from 208,6.84 × 10 4 hm 2 in 1985 to 314,5.56 × 10 4 hm 2 in 2022, primarily due to the enhanced contributions of forest land and water despite reductions in their area. Cropland liabilities remained positive, with a land equity exceeding its footprint, while grassland and water showed increasing liabilities. In terms of value, the total land asset value rose from 4510 billion yuan in 1985 to 64,533 billion yuan in 2022, with forest and water contributing the most significant gains. Although grassland experienced the largest proportional decline in area, its asset value still exhibited an increasing trend due to the rise in net present value per unit area. The integrated EF–ESV framework embeds ecosystem services into equilibrium and yield factors, improving EF-based accounting beyond area-only measures. Future work should focus on improving high-resolution land asset databases and spatially explicit methods to support more targeted planning and policy implementation. • Integrated EF and ESV models to assess land asset dynamics in Poyang Lake (1985–2022). • Land asset value rose from 4.5 trillion to 64.5 trillion yuan, led by forests and water. • Land-use changes increased liabilities in grassland and water, threatening sustainability. • Called for refined spatial methods and databases to guide precise land-use planning.