Introduction: Stockpiling antidotes and therapeutics is required in cases of CBRNE terrorism. However, there have been no studies on an appropriate stockpiling system and the cost of stockpiling antidotes. Therefore, the speakers focused on the expiration date of the antidote, estimated the expiration date from the results of the accelerated test of the antidote, and examined the optimization of the running stock. Methods: The accelerated test is a method in which the rate of change is measured in a short period of time under high temperature conditions, and the stability under normal storage conditions is predicted based on the measurement results. In this study, we speculated on the stability of various antidotes if the drug changes only by chemical reactions and the temperature dependence of its rate follows the Arrhenius equation. A gas multiplier R = 8.3144621 J/(K·mol), temperature T = 273 K, and activation energy E = 92466.4 J/mol were used in the calculation. Results: The subjects were administered atropine sulfate, pralidoxime iodide, diazepam, hydroxocobalamin, dimercaprol, penicillamine, Prussian blue, methylene blue, and fomepizole. Extrapolating the results of the accelerated tests of various antidotes to Arrhenius’ equation, it was estimated that atropine sulfate had a shelf life of 3.1 years, pralidoxime iodide for 3 years, diazepam for 3.5 years, hydroxocobalamin for 3 years, dimercaprol for 12.6 years, penicillamine for 4.5 years, Prussian blue for 3 years, methylene blue for 3 years, and fomepizole for 5 years. Conclusion: We focused on accelerated testing of various antidotes and predicted the long-term stability of the products. As a result, the titer was estimated to be maintained within three years. Based on these findings, the cost of stockpiling antidotes used in emergencies can be suppressed by adjusting the rolling stock period of various antidotes.
Hirai et al. (2026) studied this question.