Abstract Primula palinuri Petagna is a narrow endemic species confined to Tyrrhenian coastal cliff habitats in southern Italy and threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. We assessed the current, past and future habitat suitability of P. palinuri in Italy using a macroecological framework based on ecological niche modelling and GIS analyses. Furthermore, focusing on the present distribution, we conducted a conservation gap analysis to quantify the proportion of suitable habitat included within protected areas. Our models identified precipitation of the driest and wettest months, annual temperature range and distance from limestone substrates and grazing areas as the main contributors to model performance. The highest suitability values were concentrated around Palinuro (currently the area with the greatest population density) and along the southern Cilento region. Additionally, projections highlighted two geographically isolated areas outside the calibration range—Liguria and Tuscany—as potentially suitable for the occurrence of P. palinuri . Conservation gap analysis revealed that 41% of the predicted suitable habitat lies outside protected areas. Paleoclimatic projetcions indicated a significant expansion of climatically suitable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum, while showed a marked range contraction throughout the Last Interglacial and Mid-Holocene. Future climate projections (2040–2100) consistently predicted a marked reduction in suitable habitat, irrespective of the emission scenario considered. Overall, our results underscore the high vulnerability of P. palinuri to ongoing climatic and land-use changes and emphasise the urgent need for integrated conservation strategies to ensure its long-term persistence.
Panero et al. (2026) studied this question.