Micro-Scale Agent-Based Modeling of Hurricane Evacuation Under Compound Wind–Surge Hazards: A Case Study of Westbrook, Connecticut

Hurricanes create compound hazards such as storm surge, flooding, and wind-driven debris that can degrade roadway capacity, fragment network connectivity, and hinder evacuation and shelter operations. From a sustainability perspective, improving evacuation planning is essential for reducing disaster-related losses, protecting vulnerable populations, and strengthening the resilience of coastal communities facing intensifying climate-driven hazards. This paper develops a micro-scale, agent-based evacuation modeling framework to assess evacuation performance under baseline and compound-hazard conditions, with emphasis on municipal decision support. The framework is demonstrated for Westbrook, Connecticut, at the census block-group scale in AnyLogic by integrating household locations, vehicle availability, road-network connectivity, and shelter capacities from publicly available datasets. Evacuation propensity and destination choice are parameterized using survey data, enabling empirically grounded decisions for in-town versus out-of-town evacuation among household-vehicle agents. Compound disruptions are represented through flood-related road closures derived from SLOSH storm-surge outputs and stochastic wind-related disruptions that dynamically constrain accessibility during the simulation. Scenarios are evaluated for Saffir–Simpson Category 1–2 and Category 3–4 hurricanes under baseline and compound conditions. Model outputs quantify normalized evacuation time, congestion and critical intersections, shelter demand and unmet capacity, evacuation failure, and spatial heterogeneity across block groups. Results indicate that compound flooding substantially increases evacuation times and failure rates, with the largest performance degradation concentrated in higher-vulnerability areas. Optimization experiments further compare the effectiveness of behavioral shifts, shelter-capacity expansion, and earlier departure timing in reducing delays and unmet shelter demand. Overall, the proposed framework provides transparent, reproducible, and scalable analytics that town engineers and emergency planners can use to evaluate evacuation readiness under compound hurricane impacts.