Based on a sub-pixel approach, this study analysed the Land Use/Cover (LU/C) dynamics of Nnewi Metropolis in Anambra State, Nigeria. Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite imageries of 1986, 2001 and 2016 were characterized into different LU/Cs using Ridd’s Vegetation, Impervious Surface, Soil and Water (VIS-W) model via Linear Spectral Mixture Analysis (LSMA). LU/C endmember fractions obtained were hardened to produce the final LU/C maps of the study area, per epoch. Cellular Automata Markov (Ca-Markov) chain and the Land Change Modeler (LCM) were used to predict future LU/C for the year 2031 and the transition of each LU/C categories between 2016 and 2031, respectively. ArcGIS 10.5, Idrisi Selva and Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS 22) were used to perform the analyses. The result of the classification yielded a high level of accuracy (Kappa coefficient >0.85) and revealed that vegetation reduced over the years; impervious surface increased exposed soil fractions reduced while water cover fluctuated throughout the study epoch. Change detection analyses showed that the magnitude of change for each LU/C category were highest in recent period (2001 – 2016), while the result of the Markov chain analysis revealed continued change, especially in the reduction of vegetated areas (-36.85sq.km) and water surfaces (-0.65sq.km) as well as in the proliferation of impervious surfaces (14.86sq.km) and soil fractions (22.63sq.km) in the year 2031. Furthermore, the application of LCM revealed all the LU/C transition categories, earmarking about 29sq.km of vegetal cover to be converted to impervious surfaces. The result of the Chi-square analysis however revealed that the predicted changes in LU/C categories for 2031 were statistically significant (α= 0.01). Thus, this study is to serve as an objective base for environmental managers and planners to trace, model and simulate the implication of the rapid dynamics of urban landscapes from a continuous perspective, particularly when other geographical phenomena are to be better understood. It is also recommended that government and environmental managers are to roll-out phased programmes to track and manage the changing landscape or to revamp the current LU/C change scenario in Nnewi by making use of the LU/C transition map presented in this study.
Eneche et al. (2018) studied this question.