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April 1, 2026Applied Sciences0 citationsOpen Access

GTH-Net: A Dynamic Game-Theoretic HyperNetwork for Non-Stationary Financial Time Series Forecasting

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FCFujie ChenCDChen Ding

Key Points

  • The aim is to develop a framework that adapts forecasting models to the non-stationary nature of financial time series data.
  • Introduced a Game-Theoretic HyperNetwork (GTH-Net) for dynamic forecasting.
  • Implemented an Evolutionary Game-Theoretic Correction Module (E-GTCM) to extract buyer and seller pressure.
  • Utilized a HyperNetwork-based mechanism to generate weights for the forecasting model based on market context.
  • Conducted experiments on real-world stock datasets to test predictive accuracy.
  • GTH-Net significantly outperformed existing deep learning models in predictive accuracy.
  • Demonstrated improved financial profitability in simulations.
  • Ablation studies confirmed effective dynamic weight generation in responding to market reversals.

Abstract

Financial time series forecasting remains a challenging task due to the high non-stationarity and concept drift inherent to market data. Existing deep learning models, such as LSTMs and transformers, typically employ static weights after training, limiting their ability to adapt to rapid market regime shifts (e.g., from trends to reversals). To bridge this gap between static parameters and dynamic environments, we propose a novel framework named Game-Theoretic HyperNetwork (GTH-Net), which introduces a context-aware meta-learning mechanism to achieve adaptive forecasting. Specifically, we first introduce an Evolutionary Game-Theoretic Correction Module (E-GTCM) to explicitly extract latent buying and selling pressure based on market microstructure priors through an iterative gated evolution process. Subsequently, we propose a HyperNetwork-based fusion mechanism that treats the extracted game state as a meta-context to dynamically generate the weights of the forecasting head. This allows the model to automatically switch its prediction rules in response to shifting market regimes. Extensive experiments on real-world stock datasets demonstrate that GTH-Net significantly outperforms baselines in terms of machine learning predictive accuracy and simulated financial profitability. Furthermore, ablation studies and parameter analysis confirm that the dynamic weight generation mechanism effectively captures market reversals caused by overcrowded trades.

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Cite This Study

Chen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69ccb68116edfba7beb88259https://doi.org/10.3390/app16073294
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