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April 5, 2026Environmental and Ecological Statistics0 citationsOpen Access

Statistical dependence models for multi-hazard events: an application to the Danube Region

GPGeorg Ch. PflugVKViktoria KittlerSHStefan Hochrainer-Stigler

Key Points

  • The aim is to develop statistical models to study dependencies between various natural hazards in a specific region.
  • Introduced statistical models based on Poisson-type event processes.
  • Applied models to data from multiple natural hazard events in the Danube Region.
  • Analyzed interactions among different hazards including temperature, wildfire, drought, and flooding.
  • Identified significant interactions between extreme temperature, wildfire, drought, and flood hazards.
  • Helped bridge the gap between conceptual understanding and empirical evidence.
  • Provided statistical frameworks to estimate hazards' dependencies.

Abstract

Abstract Research about natural hazards has expanded from single-hazard to multi-hazard ones. While single hazards have been extensively studied in the past and many quantitative statements about intensities and severities are available, empirical studies about multi-hazard events and corresponding dependencies are still rare. This paper introduces statistical models for estimating the dependencies between different hazard types based on Poisson-type event processes. Moreover, the models are applied to data for several natural hazard events from the Danube Region within Europe. We found several multi-hazard interactions between extreme temperature, wildfire, drought, and flood hazards. The analysis should help to bridge the gap between the more conceptual contributions to this discussion by providing empirical evidence on interactions on a large-scale region as well as providing statistical models how to estimate them.

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Cite This Study

Pflug et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d1fd73a79560c99a0a370chttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-026-00721-w
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