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Climate model global warming simulations predict large regional changes in tropical rainfall, including regions of drought. Qualitatively similar changes occur during El Niño interannual variability. Using an intermediate climate model, we have identified a mechanism that creates regional reductions in precipitation at the margins of convection zones during warming. In this “upped‐ante mechanism”, a warm troposphere increases the value of surface boundary layer moisture required for convection to occur. In regions of plentiful moisture supply, moisture simply rises to maintain precipitation, but this increases the moisture gradient relative to neighboring subsidence regions. Reductions in rainfall then result for those margins of convection zones that have strong inflow of air from the subsidence regions and less frequently meet the increased “ante” for convection. In simulations analyzed here, this new mechanism is the leading cause of tropical drought in the global warming case and is dominant in certain El Niño drought regions.
Neelin et al. (2003) studied this question.