Assessment of the economic and social effectiveness of state support for the population

The article examines the effectiveness of implementing social protection instruments for the population in the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the performance of state social support measures, including benefits, social payments, and maternity capital. The aim of the work is to assess the economic and social effectiveness of existing social protection instruments by analysing their impact on household income levels, poverty dynamics, and citizens’ reproductive behaviour. The methodological framework of the study comprises the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method and the CCR and BCC models, which allow assessing the relationship between the volume of social payments and the results achieved. It also includes a retrospective analysis of statistical data from Rosstat for the period 2018–2023. The study reveals a positive trend in the effectiveness of social support by 2023 and identifies a synergistic effect from the set of measures being implemented, manifested in an increase in citizens’ well‑being and the maintenance of demographic indicators. It is determined that the maternity capital programme has a significant impact on reproductive behaviour; however, the maximum effectiveness of this instrument was achieved in 2017. The necessity of applying a two‑stage evaluation procedure is substantiated — one that combines DEA analysis with econometric modelling — to identify the factors determining differences in the effectiveness of social policy. The results of the study can be used to adjust state social support programmes and optimise budget expenditures on the social sector.