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January 30, 2020Eurosurveillance1,430 citationsOpen Access

Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020

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JRJulien RiouCAChristian L. Althaus

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Abstract

Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

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Riou et al. (2020) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69db0d814a1e15904c836bdchttps://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.4.2000058
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