This study examines the growing military and geopolitical competition in the Sahel and West Africa following the security crisis that began in northern Mali in 2012. France’s prolonged military presence, initially framed as counterterrorism, gradually triggered local backlash and contributed to a wave of coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Russia has expanded its influence through the Wagner Group and now seeks institutionalization via the newly formed "Africa Corps." The United States, facing strategic setbacks, has withdrawn from bases in Niger and Chad, aiming to reposition some forces in Côte d'Ivoire and among regional partners. Türkiye is emerging as a new actor through defense cooperation agreements and the export of Bayraktar drones, while China maintains a limited military footprint, relying on a base in Djibouti and increasing arms exports to safeguard its economic interests. This multi-actor competition is not only military but also economic, diplomatic, and ideological in nature. Control over natural resources such as uranium, gold, and oil, along with maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, renders the region strategically significant. Rising foreign military presence is weakening regional stability, undermining state sovereignty, and reshaping the region’s security architecture—developments that are likely to influence both future international power balances and the foreign policy preferences of African states.
Mahamane Moutari ABOUBACAR İSSA (2026) studied this question.