Background Food security in Puntland depends not only on imports through Bosaso Port but also on upstream production and rural markets. Evidence from Carmo Township and agricultural villages highlights systemic weaknesses that undermine resilience before food reaches consumers. Farmers rely on diesel-powered shallow wells, leaving irrigation vulnerable to fuel price shocks, while exclusive use of organic fertilizers creates nutrient imbalances, delaying harvests and reducing yields. Market practices—bargaining-based pricing, analog scales, and absent price displays—foster inequity and mistrust. Limited cold chain capacity accelerates spoilage of perishables, while poor roads and dilapidated trucks isolate producers and traders. Institutional support is minimal, with no extension offices, no regulation of market prices, and no advisory services, leaving communities without resilience strategies. Methods This study draws on field observations and interviews in Carmo and surrounding villages, supported by document review of agricultural policies and comparative case studies from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Rwanda. Data were triangulated with institutional reports and Zenodo-archived datasets to ensure transparency and reproducibility. Results Findings show that maintaining the status quo perpetuates low yields, market inefficiencies, and livelihood vulnerability. Incremental reforms—such as pilot irrigation schemes or limited subsidies—offer short-term relief but fail to address systemic weaknesses. Comparative lessons demonstrate that irrigation investment, cooperative strengthening, and climate-smart agriculture can stabilize production, reduce losses, and strengthen resilience. Conclusions Comprehensive reform is recommended: establishing a Puntland Agriculture and Food Security Authority, investing in irrigation and rural roads, scaling climate-smart practices, formalizing cooperatives, and introducing fiscal incentives for agribusiness. Decisive upstream reforms are essential to reduce reliance on imports, safeguard household affordability, and build a food system capable of withstanding climate and market shocks. Underlying datasets supporting this study are openly available via Zenodo, ensuring compliance with ORA’s Open Data policy.
Nyamweya et al. (2026) studied this question.