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January 1, 1955Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)608 citations

Statistical Methods and Scientific Induction

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RFRonald Aylmer FisherAmerican University

Key Points

  • The aim is to clarify misconceptions surrounding significance tests used in scientific research.
  • Examined common phrases in statistical significance testing.
  • Analyzed the misconceptions surrounding repeated sampling, errors of the second kind, and inductive behavior.
  • Discussed the impact of these misconceptions on scientific decision-making.
  • Identified key fallacies in the interpretation of significance tests.
  • Highlighted the misleading nature of certain statistical phrases for mathematicians without background in natural sciences.
  • Showed that errors in interpretation can lead to more than just numerical inaccuracies.

Abstract

Summary The attempt to reinterpret the common tests of significance used in scientific research as though they constituted some kind of acceptance procedure and led to “decisions” in Wald’s sense, originated in several misapprehensions and has led, apparently, to several more. The three phrases examined here, with a view to elucidating the fallacies they embody, are: (i)“Repeated sampling from the same population”,(ii)Errors of the “second kind”,(iii)“Inductive behaviour”. Mathematicians without personal contact with the Natural Sciences have often been misled by such phrases. The errors to which they lead are not always only numerical.

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Cite This Study

Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1955) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69dd5ed8fb7610310c10293bhttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1955.tb00180.x
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