Environmental factors and biodiversity in Nigeria (1960–2025)

Nigeria, one of Africa's most biologically diverse nations, is confronting an accelerating biodiversity crisis driven by compounding environmental stressors. This study examines the impact of three primary environmental factors — deforestation rate, pollution levels, and climate change indicators — on biodiversity in Nigeria over the period 1960–2025, while controlling for location, terrain, population density, GDP per capita, income level, invasive species presence, and natural disasters. Employing a blend of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects, Random Effects, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) regression techniques, alongside robust post-estimation diagnostics, the study finds that deforestation exerts the most severe negative impact on biodiversity (β = −5.124, p < 0.001), followed by climate change indicators (β = −4.387, p < 0.001) and pollution levels (β = −0.312, p < 0.001). GDP per capita, income level, terrain elevation, and forest zone location are found to be positive moderating forces on biodiversity outcomes. The Johansen cointegration test confirms a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. These findings underscore the urgent need for multi-sectoral, evidence-based environmental governance in Nigeria. The study contributes to the environmental economics and conservation biology literature by offering one of the most comprehensive quantitative assessments of biodiversity determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa spanning six decades.