What question did this study set out to answer?

To quantify post-game exit and staying behavior of spectators influenced by match developments.

April 22, 2026Japanese Journal of JSCE0 citations

The Impact of J.LEAGUE Match Developments on Post-Game Spectator Retention Rates: Quantifying Post-Game Departure and Staying Behavior Through Crowd Dynamics

HYHiroshi Yamashita HYHiroaki YOSHIDA TNTomoki NISHI

Key Points

To quantify post-game exit and staying behavior of spectators influenced by match developments.
Integrated mobile spatial statistics with public match data.
Processed and assessed time-based crowd data around venues.
Analyzed relationships between match outcomes and retention rates using a regression model.
Home team victories increase spectator retention rates.
Match developments have additional effects on retention.
Bayesian estimation confirms match content influences post-game crowd behavior.

Abstract

大規模イベント終了後の交通施策の検討には，終了直後の退出・滞留行動とその変動要因を定量的かつ継続的に把握することが重要である．本研究は，事前に確定しないイベントの内容情報がこの変動要因となるとの仮説の下，jリーグ公式戦を対象にモバイル空間統計と公開試合情報を統合して分析した．会場周辺の時間別滞在人口データの前処理と精度評価を行い，「試合後観客数残存率」を計算した．試合結果・試合展開と残存率の関連を他の要因を調整した回帰モデルにより分析した結果，ホームチームの勝利(敗戦)は残存率を高め(低下させ)，試合展開が追加的な影響を与える可能性が示された．補足的検討として，調整済み残存率に基づくベイズ推定により勝敗を確率的に推定し，試合後の人流データに試合内容情報が一定程度含まれうることを確認した．

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Cite This Study

Yamashita et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e864c46e0dea528dde96be https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.22-00250

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April 22, 2026Japanese Journal of JSCE0 citations

The Impact of J.LEAGUE Match Developments on Post-Game Spectator Retention Rates: Quantifying Post-Game Departure and Staying Behavior Through Crowd Dynamics

View Full Paper

HYHiroshi Yamashita HYHiroaki YOSHIDA TNTomoki NISHI

Key Points

To quantify post-game exit and staying behavior of spectators influenced by match developments.
Integrated mobile spatial statistics with public match data.
Processed and assessed time-based crowd data around venues.
Analyzed relationships between match outcomes and retention rates using a regression model.
Home team victories increase spectator retention rates.
Match developments have additional effects on retention.
Bayesian estimation confirms match content influences post-game crowd behavior.

Abstract

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Cite This Study

Yamashita et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e864c46e0dea528dde96be https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.22-00250

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