Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” goals, investigating whether market-based environmental regulations can effectively induce technological upgrading is critical for achieving a sustainable low-carbon transition. This study adopts a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach within a two-way fixed-effects framework, supplemented by propensity score matching (PSM-DID), to identify the causal impact of the carbon emission trading (CET) pilot policy. The research utilizes a comprehensive panel dataset of A-share listed companies in heavy-polluting industries from 2010 to 2024, incorporating IPC-matched green patent application data to provide a granular assessment of corporate innovation performance. The empirical findings reveal a structural divergence: while the CET policy promotes green innovation in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), it exhibits a potential “crowding-out” effect on private enterprises, a relationship further explained by the mechanisms of carbon information disclosure and financing constraints. These results suggest that the “Porter Effect” in emerging markets is highly conditional on institutional resource endowments, implying that policymakers must complement market incentives with differentiated financial support and enhanced transparency standards to foster a more equitable innovation ecosystem.
Wang et al. (2026) studied this question.