Dual-Pathway Superposition: Independent Forcings of Spring Indian Ocean SST and Summer Tibetan Plateau Heating on Middle and Lower Yangtze Rainfall

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) atmospheric heat source crucially modulates East Asian summer monsoon precipitation, yet its synergy with upstream oceanic signals remains elusive. Using observations (1971–2020) and CMIP6 simulations, we investigate mechanisms coupling the summer TP heating and precipitation over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River (MLYR). SVD analysis reveals a robust positive coupling between them. Mechanistically, TP heating triggers a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train, inducing a “saddle-like” circulation that drives intense MLYR moisture convergence (contributing >90% to precipitation changes). Crucially, we re-examine the upstream oceanic precursor to propose a “dual-pathway superposition” framework. Contrary to the assumed linear causal chain, four-quadrant analysis reveals the spring Indian Ocean Basin Warming (IOBW) and summer TP heating are largely independent drivers (R = 0.24). While IOBW thermodynamically excites an Anomalous Anticyclone supplying abundant MLYR moisture, it lacks robust control over TP heating, which is dominated by internal atmospheric dynamics. However, our findings reveal a critical non-linear synergy: extreme MLYR rainfall strictly requires the coincidental phase overlap of these independent pathways (strong dynamic lifting coupled with oceanic moisture). CMIP6 simulations corroborate this independence, further emphasizing that extreme MLYR rainfall results from phase superposition rather than a single causal chain.