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April 23, 2026Information Systems Frontiers1 citationsOpen Access

Multimodal Insights into Credit Risk Modelling: Integrating Climate and Text Data for Default Prediction

ZWZongxiao WuRLRan LiuJDJiang Dai

Key Points

  • The research aims to enhance credit risk assessment by integrating climate and text data into traditional financial models.
  • Developed a multimodal framework combining structured credit variables, climate panel data, and unstructured text narratives.
  • Employed long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), and transformer models for data analysis.
  • Utilized SHAP-based explainability methods to assess the impact of climate risks on credit defaults.
  • Unimodal models using climate or text data outperformed those using solely structured data.
  • Integration of multiple data modalities significantly improved credit default predictions.
  • Physical climate risks, particularly water-logging by rain, were identified as key factors in default prediction.

Abstract

Credit risk assessment increasingly relies on diverse sources of information beyond traditional structured financial data, particularly for micro and small enterprises with limited financial histories. This study proposes a multimodal framework that integrates structured credit variables, climate panel data, and unstructured textual narratives within a unified learning architecture. Specifically, we use long short-term memory (LSTM), the gated recurrent unit (GRU), and transformer models to analyse the interplay between these data modalities. The empirical results demonstrate that unimodal models based on climate or text data outperform those relying solely on structured data, while the integration of multiple data modalities yields significant improvements in credit default prediction. Using SHAP-based explainability methods, we find that physical climate risks play an important role in default prediction, with water-logging by rain emerging as the most influential factor. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of multimodal approaches in AI-enabled decision-making, which provides robust tools for credit risk assessment while contributing to the broader integration of environmental and textual insights into predictive analytics.

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Cite This Study

Wu et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e9b9a285696592c86ec2e6https://doi.org/10.1007/s10796-026-10739-x
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