Reducing homicides and homicide education inequalities: deterrence and negotiation in Colombian security policies over 1999–2017

This study examines long-term trends (1999-2017) in homicide rates and socioeconomic disparities in Colombia, a country marked by decades of armed conflict, organized crime and structural inequality. We used national mortality data, applying age-standardized rates, the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) and Joinpoint regression to assess trends and educational disparities. Homicide rates declined substantially for men and women, demonstrating the effectiveness of renewed state capacity and security interventions. However, this macroscopic success was highly uneven: gaps in lethal violence by educational attainment widened for most of the study period, underscoring a critical policy dilemma. These findings show that reductions in homicide did not translate into proportional declines in socioeconomic disparities. Sustainable and equitable violence reduction requires a dual-track strategy combining deterrence and structural equity. Crucially, successful transitions to peace demand the strategic weakening of illegal armed structures be prioritized before, or concurrently with, formal peace negotiations.