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April 27, 2026BMC Medical Imaging0 citationsOpen Access

Association between deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score on non-gated chest CT and progression of chronic kidney disease: a retrospective observational cohort study

KYKai YangMLMeiling LiJWJiayu Wang

Key Result

A deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score >400 was associated with a significantly increased risk of chronic kidney disease progression compared to a score of 0 (HR 4.52).

Key Points

  • This research examines the relationship between deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score (DL-CACS) and the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD).
  • Retrospective data collection from individuals with CKD who underwent non-gated chest CT scans from January 2017 to June 2022.
  • Participants stratified by DL-CACS at baseline into categories of 0, 1-100, 101–400, and > 400 Agatston units.
  • Primary outcome measured was CKD progression, defined by a ≥ 50% decrease in eGFR or initiation of kidney replacement therapy.
  • Among 509 CKD patients, 155 (30.5%) experienced CKD progression during a follow-up of 2152 person-years.
  • Higher DL-CACS was significantly associated with CKD progression, with HRs of 2.27 (1-100), 3.75 (101-400), and 4.52 (>400).
  • For major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), HRs were 1.65 (1-100), 5.46 (101-400), and 11.60 (>400), indicating increased risk but imprecise estimates.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=509)

Multicenter

No

Structured PICO

Does higher deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score (DL-CACS) predict CKD progression and MACE in adults with chronic kidney disease?

P
Population
509 adults (aged ≥18 years) with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who received non-gated chest CT scans, median age 64.00, 62% male, single-center in China. Excluded: prior dialysis treatment or organ transplantation, history of percutaneous coronary intervention, cardiac metal implants, coronary artery bypass grafting, coronary artery disease, malignancy, heart failure, or cirrhosis.
I
Intervention
Higher deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score (DL-CACS) categories (1-100, 101-400, and >400 Agatston units) derived from non-gated chest CT
C
Comparator
DL-CACS of 0 Agatston units
O
Outcome
Composite endpoint of CKD progression, defined as either a ≥50% decrease in eGFR from baseline or the initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) during follow-upcomposite

Higher deep learning-based coronary artery calcium scores derived from routine non-gated chest CT are independently associated with an increased risk of CKD progression and major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Main Result

Effect estimate: HR 4.52 (95% CI 2.45-8.33)

Limitations

  • Retrospective observational design
  • Clinical utility requires confirmation in larger, prospective cohorts
  • Limited events and wide confidence intervals for secondary outcomes
  • Single-center design inherently more susceptible to selection bias
  • Use of multiple CT scanners may introduce systematic measurement variability
  • Absence of direct, cohort-specific validation against ECG-gated CACS
  • Residual or unmeasured confounding, such as oxidative stress and fibroblast growth factor 23
  • Limited number of MACEs in the secondary outcome analysis may compromise statistical reliability

Abstract

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a pathological manifestation of coronary atherosclerosis in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. CAC on non-gated chest CT images can be precisely quantified through deep learning algorithms. Nevertheless, the relationship between deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score (DL-CACS) and the progression of CKD remains unclear. Between January 2017 and June 2022, data from individuals with CKD were retrospectively collected. All enrolled participants had undergone non-gated chest CT scans and were stratified by DL-CACS at baseline: 0, 1-100, 101–400, and > 400 Agatston units (AU). The primary outcome of this study was a composite endpoint related to CKD progression, defined as either a ≥ 50% decrease in eGFR from baseline or the initiation of kidney replacement therapy during follow-up. The secondary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), including cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, revascularization, rehospitalization resulting from heart failure or aggravated angina and all-cause mortality. Among the 509 patients with CKD (median age: 64.00 57.00-70.50 years old; 317 men) finally included in this study, 155 (30.5%) patients achieved primary outcome during the follow-up period of 2152 person-years. Compared to individuals without CAC, higher DL-CACS was greatly associated with CKD progression. In the fully adjusted hazard models, the hazard ratio of DL-CACS of 1-100 was 2.27 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.26–4.10), 3.75 (95% CI, 2.01-7.00) for DL-CACS of 101–400, and 4.52 (95% CI, 2.45–8.33) for DL-CACS > 400. The sensitivity analyses yielded similar results with primary findings. Of the 48 patients experienced the secondary outcome of MACEs, DL-CACS of 1-100, 101–400, and > 400 were associated with HRs of 1.65 (95% CI, 0.39–7.06), 5.46 (95% CI, 1.41–21.14), and 11.60 (95% CI, 3.09–43.58), respectively, in the final hazard models. Higher DL-CACS is associated with an increased risk of CKD progression. Associations with MACE were directionally consistent but imprecise, reflecting the limited events and wide confidence intervals.

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Cite This Study

Yang et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Chronic kidney disease (n=509). Deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score (DL-CACS) >400 vs. DL-CACS of 0 was evaluated on Composite of ≥50% decline in eGFR or initiation of kidney replacement therapy (HR 4.52, 95% CI 2.45-8.33). A deep learning-based coronary artery calcium score >400 was associated with a significantly increased risk of chronic kidney disease progression compared to a score of 0 (HR 4.52).

synapsesocial.com/papers/69eefc6dfede9185760d386dhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12880-026-02365-5
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