Latent Divergence: Russia and China Between Tactical Alignment and Structural Incompatibility

Russia-China relations are frequently described as a strategic partnership or an emerging anti-Western bloc. However, such interpretations underestimate the structural differences underlying this alignment. This paper introduces the concept of latent divergence, arguing that Russia and China pursue fundamentally different models of global order transformation. Russia increasingly frames the existing system of globalization as illegitimate and seeks to undermine it, whereas China aims to preserve globalization while reshaping its rules to reflect its own normative and economic preferences. Using a signal-pattern analysis (SPA) framework, the paper identifies recurring behavioral patterns across diplomatic, economic, and crisis contexts. The case of the Iran crisis demonstrates how these differences manifest in practice: Russia adopts escalatory rhetoric and delegitimization strategies, while China favors de-escalation and systemic stabilization. The findings suggest that current Russia-China alignment is tactical rather than structural. While cooperation is likely to persist in the short term, underlying divergences may generate long-term constraints and potential systemic tension.