A behavioral change approach to understanding true demand for future climate information

There is a persistent gap between the supply of and demand for future climate information in adaptation decision-making. Despite various proposed solutions, including climate services and co-production, this gap remains unbridged. Here, we present a systematic sectoral analysis grounded in behavioral theory, exploring where and how climate information could support decision-making. Drawing on the COM-B framework for behavior (B) change, we examine the capabilities (C), opportunities (O), and motivation (M) necessary for climate information to inform decision-making, focusing on two climate-sensitive sectors in Germany—agriculture and forestry—and on decadal predictions as an example. Through expert focus groups (N = 24 participants), we identify key adaptation decisions for the coming decade and analyze current decision strategies and contexts. Our findings reveal that the demand for decadal predictions is negatively impacted by knowledge gaps, lack of opportunity, and limited motivation. Instead, decision-makers often rely on strategies such as past experience and heuristics like worst-case planning that do not require precise information, but may represent smart strategies for uncertain environments. The true demand for future climate information remains masked, blocked, or unexpressed when decision-makers lack the capabilities, opportunities, or motivation to recognize, act on, or articulate it; when current decision strategies suffice, there simply is no demand. By using the COM-B framework as a behavioral lens to systematically understand the demand side, our approach offers generalizable insights that may help bridge the gap between supply and demand, design effective interventions, and guide the allocation of resources in climate research and policy.