This paper presents a finite element methodology for predicting time to failure of SKF 7218 angular contact ball bearings based on wear degradation using the Archard wear model. A comprehensive 3D simulation was conducted in Ansys Workbench 2026 R-2 under aerospace-relevant operating conditions: rotational speed of 6000 rpm and axial load of 5000 N. Contact pressure and sliding distance were extracted over 30 simulation steps and utilized to compute wear depth evolution. The results demonstrate a nonlinear wear progression characterized by three distinct phases: an initial running-in period (0–10 mm sliding distance, wear depth 0–1.0 µm), a steady-state regime (10–40 mm, 1.0–2.0 µm), and a mild wear stabilization beyond 40 mm (2.0–2.4 µm). A parametric study on material hardness (1500–2500 MPa) revealed an inverse relationship with wear depth, reducing wear from 97 µm to 49 µm at 58,000 cycles. The wear depth versus contact pressure curve exhibited an accelerating trend, transitioning from mild wear (0.06 µm at 1.55 MPa) to severe adhesive/abrasive wear (61.5 µm at 53.64 MPa). These findings provide quantitative benchmarks for condition-based maintenance scheduling and pre-failure analysis in aerospace auxiliary systems including aircraft accessory gearboxes, fuel pumps, and UAV propulsion systems.
Shambit et al. (2026) studied this question.