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March 31, 2026Journal of General Internal Medicine2 citations

Estimating the Hawthorne Effect in Real-World Blood Pressure Control Trials: An Analysis of the BP Home Trial

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MRMax RosenJohnson UniversityVFValy FontilPreventive CardiologyMMMadelaine Faulkner ModrowUniversity of California, San Francisco

Key Result

Enrollment in a blood pressure trial resulted in an immediate systolic blood pressure drop of -4.2 mmHg (95% CI, -5.1 to -3.3; p<0.001) due to increased adherence to pre-existing medications.

Key Points

  • Analyze the components contributing to observed systolic blood pressure reductions in a BP control trial.
  • Secondary analysis of BP Home trial data.
  • Participants were smartphone owners with uncontrolled BP, randomly assigned to BP monitoring devices.
  • Systolic BP trajectories were analyzed using linear mixed models.
  • Average immediate drop in SBP of -4.2 mmHg (95% CI, -5.1 to -3.3; p<0.001) due to increased medication adherence.
  • New medication class initiation led to an SBP drop of -4.1 mmHg (95% CI, -5.3 to -2.8; p<0.001).
  • Average expected regression to the mean was -3.9 mmHg (95% CI, -4.4 to -3.3; p<0.001).

Study Design

Type

RCT

Randomization

randomly assigned

Structured PICO

Does enrollment in a research study and self-measurement of blood pressure reduce systolic blood pressure through a Hawthorne effect in patients with uncontrolled blood pressure?

P
Population
Patients owning a smartphone who reported uncontrolled blood pressure at their last clinic visit (> 145 mmHg) and a desire to lower their blood pressure by > 10 mmHg.
I
Intervention
One of two devices for self-measurement of blood pressure, followed for up to 24 months via electronic health records.
C
Comparator
The other device for self-measurement of blood pressure.
O
Outcome
Electronic health record (EHR)-recorded office systolic blood pressure (SBP).surrogate

A significant portion of blood pressure reductions observed in clinical trials may be attributable to the Hawthorne effect (increased adherence due to study enrollment) and regression to the mean, rather than the specific intervention being tested.

Main Result

Effect estimate: Mean drop -4.2 mmHg (95% CI -5.1 to -3.3)

p-value: p=<0.001

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Results from blood pressure (BP) control interventional trials can inform clinicians and health systems pursuing better BP control, but they must be interpreted cautiously. OBJECTIVE: Deconstruct the observed drop in systolic BP (SBP) into components attributable to increased adherence to previously prescribed medications, regression to the mean, and initiation of new medications. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of BP Home, a pragmatic randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Patients owning a smartphone who reported uncontrolled BP at their last clinic visit (> 145 mmHg) and a desire to lower their BP by > 10 mmHg. INTERVENTIONS: In BP Home, participants were randomly assigned to receive one of two devices for self-measurement of BP and followed for up to 24 months via electronic health records (EHR). APPROACH: The primary outcome was EHR-recorded office SBP. We fit SBP trajectories for each participant using linear mixed models, and estimated the contributions of medication adjustments, and increased adherence to pre-existing BP medications due to their enrollment in a research study (i.e., a Hawthorne effect). Regression to the mean was calculated for each participant as the difference between their last measured pre-enrollment SBP and their modeled SBP trajectory at enrollment. KEY RESULTS: Among participants taking BP medications at enrollment, we estimated an average immediate drop in SBP of -4.2 mmHg (95% CI, -5.1 to -3.3; p < 0.001) at enrollment, explainable by increased medication adherence following study enrollment. Starting a new medication class post-enrollment resulted in an SBP drop of -4.1 mmHg (95% CI, -5.3 to -2.8; p < 0.001). The average expected regression to the mean was -3.9 (95% CI, -4.4 to -3.3; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A significant portion of BP reductions in trials may stem from increased adherence to pre-existing medications arising from enrollment in a research study and enhanced awareness of their elevated BP. NIH TRIAL REGISTRY NUMBER: NCT03796689 (registered on 2019-01-04).

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Cite This Study

Rosen et al. (2026) conducted an RCT in Uncontrolled blood pressure. Self-measurement of BP devices was evaluated on EHR-recorded office SBP (Mean drop -4.2 mmHg, 95% CI -5.1 to -3.3, p=<0.001). Enrollment in a blood pressure trial resulted in an immediate systolic blood pressure drop of -4.2 mmHg (95% CI, -5.1 to -3.3; p<0.001) due to increased adherence to pre-existing medications.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a025c8eedf6f48138594762https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-026-10249-1
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