Adaptations of the cereal production system in a multi-risk environment: A multi-level study in Tunisia

Grain self-sufficiency is an increasing priority for Mediterranean countries, especially following the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. In Tunisia, it concerns around 250,000 cereal growers whose production systems also include other annual and perennial crops, livestock, and off-farm activities, all subject to multiple risks. Much of research focuses on adaptation at the cropping system level, but broader farm and agricultural sector dynamics remain under-explored. This study was aimed at characterizing the multi-risk environment, adaptation strategies, and resource needs of cereal growers at cereal crop, farm, and sectoral scales. A multi-stakeholder workshop was conducted to identify key challenges and adaptation levers at the sector level, followed by 23 semi-structured interviews in the Siliana governorate to explore farmers' current responses to perceived risks. Results indicate that while farmers managed diverse crop-livestock systems, the majority of perceived risks were concentrated on cereal production, particularly in response to climatic variability and institutional constraints. Farm adaptation strategies were focused largely on maintaining or adjusting cereal practices, while transformative options were emphasized more often in sector-wide perspectives that included shifts toward organic farming or reforms in agricultural extension services. To finance adaptation, farmers often relied on livestock, off-farm activities or informal credit, but other stakeholders in the sector focused attention on the role of formal credit. Cognitive and social resources emerged as key enablers of transformative adaptation. The study highlights the importance of supporting cereal system adaptation not only through technical and economic measures but also by considering farmers’ broader production systems. • Cereal farming in the Mediterranean is based on smallholder crop-livestock systems. • Climatic, institutional and economic risks jeopardize grain self-sufficiency. • Adaptation relies on substituting resources using physical and financial means. • Transformative change needs stronger cognitive and social resource support.