Peak Oxygen Uptake Provides a Better Predictor of Rowing Ergometer Mean Maximal Power Than Maximal Oxygen Extraction in Trained Rowers

ABSTRACT: Lanigan, BJ, Tinely, ZL, Binnie, MJ, Peeling, P, Scott, BR, Peiffer, JJ, Galna, B, Dennis, MC, Billaut, F, and Goods, PS. Peak oxygen uptake provides a better predictor of rowing ergometer mean maximal power than maximal oxygen extraction in trained rowers. J Strength Cond Res XX(X): 000-000, 2026-Practitioners working with endurance athletes are constantly seeking tools that allow for physiological testing to occur in ecologically valid training and racing scenarios. Therefore, this investigation aimed to (a) determine whether maximal oxygen extraction derived from portable noninvasive near-infrared spectroscopy devices (NIRS) improved prediction of rowing ergometer mean maximal power (MMP) compared with peak oxygen uptake (V̇O2peak) alone, and (b) assess differences in muscle oxygen extraction between anatomical sites during incremental rowing. Trained male (n = 16) and female (n = 6) rowers completed a 7 × 4 minute graded exercise test on a rowing ergometer, determining mean power output for each stage, and V̇O2peak and MMP (W·kg-1) during the final stage. Change in muscle oxygen extraction (ΔHHb + Mb) during each stage was determined using NIRS at the vastus lateralis, gastrocnemius medialis (GM), and biceps brachii (BB). The best predictor of MMP was determined using linear regression, and mixed-effects models were used to assess ΔHHb + Mb across sites and stages, with statistical significance set to p 0.05, R2 ≤ 0.05). The strongest model included V̇O2peak and GMΔHHb + Mb (R2 = 0.83); however, model fit improvement was modest (mean absolute error decreased from 0.211 to 0.193 W·kg-1). A significant site × stage interaction was observed for ΔHHb + Mb, with GMΔHHb + Mb increasing compared with BB during stage 7 (p < 0.05). Maximal oxygen extraction alone cannot predict ergometer MMP in trained rowers so practitioners should avoid using it as a primary method of assessment.