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May 14, 2026Nature Communications0 citationsOpen Access

Artificial intelligence for predicting hospital admissions from the emergency department: a prospective, quasi-experimental study

ARAlexander J. RyuSAShant AyanianRQRay Qian

Key Points

  • The study aims to evaluate an AI model that predicts hospital admission risk in emergency departments.
  • Prospective, quasi-experimental design conducted over 11 months in 2023.
  • Evaluated AI model's performance and integration into ED workflows with alternating output display to clinicians.
  • A total of 54,394 eligible ED visits were analyzed.
  • Reduced median ED length of stay by 12 minutes without increasing 72-hour bounceback visits.
  • Model performance remained stable with an AUC ranging from 0.80 to 0.82.
  • Hospitalist clinicians reported greater perceived usefulness of the AI tool compared to ED clinicians.

Abstract

The use of certain artificial intelligence (AI) tools may improve hospital operational efficiency, in particular in overcrowded emergency departments (ED). Here, we conduct a prospective, quasi experimental study evaluating an AI model predicting hospital admission risk, alternately displaying and hiding its outputs to clinicians in 2 week blocks over 11 months in 2023. Among 54,394 eligible ED visits, the AI tool does not change the number of ED patients discharged per day but reduces median ED length of stay by 12 min without increasing 72 h bounceback visits. Model performance remained stable (AUC 0.80–0.82), and hospitalist clinicians reported greater perceived usefulness than ED clinicians. These findings show that integrating a low burden AI prediction tool into ED workflows can improve operational efficiency. The study was registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05683899). Emergency department overcrowding can pose a substantial challenge for hospitals. Here the authors present an AI tool for predicting hospital admission among emergency department patients and demonstrate improvements in clinical workflow efficiency.

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Cite This Study

Ryu et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0567d2a550a87e60a2009dhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72960-1
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