Ten-Year Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease in the Honolulu Heart Program

In 10 years of follow-up of 7705 Japanese men living in Hawaii, aged 45-68 years and judged free of coronary heart disease (CHD) at the initial examination during 1965-1968, a total of 511 new CHD cases were identified: fatal CHD, 139; nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), 216; acute coronary insufficiency, 55; and uncomplicated angina pectoris (AP), 101. The incidence rate of fatal CHD and nonfatal MI for this cohort is less than half the rate for US whites and approximately twice the rate for Japanese men in Japan. The relationships of 14 biologic and lifestyle characteristics measured at baseline examination to the incidence of total CHD and specific manifestations of CHD were examined in bivariate and multivariate analyses. In bivariate analyses, all variables except heart rate were significantly related to the risk of total CHD after adjustment for age. However, when an independent contribution of each variable to CHD risk was evaluated in multiple logistic analyses in which all other variables were taken into account, the numbers of risk factors retaining significant associations varied by clinical subgroup of CHD. Among the characteristics studied, systolic blood pressure was the most powerful and consistent risk factor for all manifestations except AP. Cigarette smoking showed a similar pattern. Serum cholesterol was significantly associated with fatal CHD and nonfatal MI, but its contribution to CHD risk was less potent than systolic blood pressure or cigarette smoking. Glucose intolerance was strongly associated with fatal CHD, but with no other manifestations of CHD. Alcohol consumption demonstrated a strong protective effect upon fatal CHD and nonfatal MI. Uncomplicated AP was distinguished from other CHD manifestations by the lack of association with most of the known major risk factors for CHD, including blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and cigarette smoking.