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May 16, 2026Geo-spatial Information Science0 citationsOpen Access

Spatio-temporal patterns and underlying drivers of pixel-based Sentinel-2 cloud probability in Mainland Southeast Asia

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RCRui ChengCXChiwei XiaoMXMingtao Xiang

Key Points

  • This research aims to analyze pixel-based cloud cover dynamics and identify underlying environmental factors in Mainland Southeast Asia.
  • Analyzed 281,124 Sentinel-2 cloud scenes from 2017 to 2023
  • Integrated correlation analysis, Geographically Weighted Regression, and Geographical Detector methods
  • Investigated relationships between cloud cover and 20 environmental factors including NDVI and land cover
  • Average cloud cover probability across MSEA is 0.54 (±0.19), decreasing from northeast to southwest
  • Lowest cloud cover probabilities observed in Myanmar at 0.48 (±0.08) and in February at 0.31 (±0.22)
  • Elevation and coastal proximity are primary drivers of cloud cover variation, with three identified spatial paradigms

Abstract

Cloud cover (CC) significantly impacts the effectiveness of optical remote sensing in Earth observation, particularly in tropical areas. However, pixel-level analyses of CC dynamics and their underlying mechanisms remain inadequate. Here, we examine pixel-based CC patterns in Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) based on 281,124 Sentinel-2 cloud scenes during 2017–2023. By integrating correlation analysis, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Geographical Detector (GD) methods, we then investigated the relationships between CC (246 billion pixels in total) and 20 environmental factors, including vegetation conditions (e.g. NDVI), underlying surfaces (e.g. land cover), and meteorological parameters (e.g. wind). Main conclusions include: (1) The average CC probability of Sentinel-2 pixels across MSEA reaches 0.54 (±0.19), exhibiting a decreasing gradient from northeast to southwest and from coastal zones to inland areas. (2) Probability of CC shows significant national and temporal variations across MSEA, with the lowest values observed in Myanmar of 0.48 (±0.08) and in February of 0.31 (±0.22). (3) Elevation and coastal proximity are the primary drivers of CC, outweighing the influence of land cover. We identified three spatial paradigms of CC variation: ocean-driven (coastal areas), topography-anchored (mountainous areas), and energy-convection (inland areas). Our findings provide practical guidance for optimizing satellite data acquisition and improving remote sensing applications in cloudy and rainy regions.

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Cite This Study

Cheng et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0808ffa487c87a6a40b088https://doi.org/10.1080/10095020.2026.2668787
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