A strategic energy consumption management model: Performance evaluation of policy scenarios under sustainable development toward net zero emissions

This research aims to develop an advanced modeling framework for formulating national strategic management under sustainability toward achieving the net zero emissions target. The study constructs a model referred to as the Generalized Method of Moments based on Path Analysis with Exogenous Variables (GMM-PAXi Model), which demonstrates the highest performance when compared with existing models used in previous studies. A mixed-methods research approach is employed to bridge gaps across individual research dimensions and to enhance the depth and validity of the findings. The results indicate that the technology and energy sector is the most responsive sector to changes, followed by the social sector. The newly proposed policy scenarios emphasize solar cell adoption rates, biomass utilization rates, and public participation rates, which differ significantly from traditional policy frameworks that prioritize the BCG (Bio-Circular-Green) economy. The reliance on BCG alone is found to be insufficient for achieving long-term targets. Under the newly proposed policy scenarios, final energy consumption exhibits a growth rate of only 31.75%, which remains within a feasible range for achieving net zero emissions by 2065. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions show a growth rate of 42.35% (2065/2025), corresponding to an increase of 389.45 Mt CO 2 equivalent, which remains below the carrying capacity threshold. These findings demonstrate that the implementation of appropriate and well-designed new policy scenarios enables the government to formulate effective long-term strategic plans and to achieve sustainability in line with national objectives. Consequently, the proposed model serves as a critical analytical tool for supporting long-term policy formulation and strategic planning for Thailand. • Factors influencing changes in greenhouse gas emissions from 2025 to 2065. • Policy responsiveness capacity in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the long term. • New policy scenario models used to reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. • Effectiveness of Thailand's development toward achieving future Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). • Strategies guiding Thailand's governance and management toward achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065.