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May 16, 2026Discover Public Health2 citationsOpen Access

The burden of non-communicable diseases in Nigeria

MAMorenike Olufunmilayo AkpoGEGreat Iruoghene EdoTGTayser Sumer Gaaz

Key Result

Non-communicable disease-related disability-adjusted life years in Nigeria increased by 21.3% between 2010 and 2019, driven primarily by cardiovascular diseases.

Key Points

  • This review aims to synthesize contemporary epidemiological evidence on the burden of non-communicable diseases in Nigeria.
  • Conducted a structured narrative review using 142 sources, including 127 peer-reviewed articles and 15 national reports.
  • Focused on aspects such as prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and major risk factors.
  • Sourced data from various databases and publications spanning from January 2000 to December 2025.
  • Hypertension prevalence ranged from 18.6% in North West to 35.3% in urban Lagos, showing measurement protocol variability.
  • NCD-related DALYs increased by 21.3% from 2010 to 2019, predominantly influenced by cardiovascular disease in the 45–65 age group.
  • Identified critical gaps in data, including only three longitudinal cohorts and a shortage of rural Northern data (12% of studies).

Structured PICO

P
Population
Nigerian population (based on 142 sources: 127 peer-reviewed articles and 15 reports)
O
Outcome
Prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), temporal trends, and major risk factors of non-communicable diseases

Nigeria faces an escalating burden of non-communicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease, highlighting the need for robust surveillance and strengthened primary healthcare.

Limitations

  • Heterogeneity in study designs and populations impeded aggregation
  • Many studies lacked national representativeness
  • English-only and indexed-journal limits risked publication and language bias
  • Absence of routine NCD surveillance constrained trend quantification
  • only 3 longitudinal cohorts exist
  • rural Northern data are sparse (12% of studies)
  • incidence data are virtually absent

Abstract

Nigeria is undergoing a rapid epidemiological transition marked by a growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) alongside persistent communicable diseases. This shift poses substantial challenges for population health, health system capacity, and socioeconomic development. This review aims to synthesize contemporary epidemiological evidence on the burden of NCDs in Nigeria, with emphasis on prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), temporal trends, and major risk factors. A structured narrative review was conducted using 127 peer reviewed articles and 15 national or authoritative reports (total N = 142 sources) sourced from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, African Journals Online, World Health Organization publications, and Global Burden of Disease studies published between January 2000 and December 2025. From 142 included sources (127 peer reviewed articles; 15 grey literature reports), we identified substantial heterogeneity in NCD prevalence estimates, with hypertension ranging from 18.6% (North West) to 35.3% (urban Lagos) depending on measurement protocols. High quality community studies (n = 8) consistently demonstrated higher urban vs. rural prevalence ratios (OR 1.4–2.1), while facility-based studies overestimated national burdens. NCD related DALYs increased by 21.3% (2010–2019), driven primarily by cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adults aged 45–65. Critical evidence gaps emerged: only 3 longitudinal cohorts exist, rural Northern data are sparse (12% of studies), and incidence data are virtually absent. The review identified inadequate primary care integration and out of pocket expenditure (> 200 USD annually per household) as primary health system barriers. Nigeria’s escalating NCD burden underscores the need for robust surveillance, population-level prevention strategies, strengthened primary healthcare, and multisectoral action addressing underlying social determinants of health.

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Cite This Study

Akpo et al. (2026) conducted a review in Non-communicable diseases. Non-communicable disease-related disability-adjusted life years in Nigeria increased by 21.3% between 2010 and 2019, driven primarily by cardiovascular diseases.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a080a9fa487c87a6a40c900https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-026-02046-2
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