This research analyzes how modern Belt and Road spillover moderates the nexus between disruptive financial technology and green development, encompassing 148 countries (global full panel) and regionally divided into 49 Asian, 50 European, and 49 African countries, from 2004 to 2023. Advanced panel econometric techniques, such as linear and nonlinear two-step system GMM and Bayesian regression, were employed as the prime and robust techniques. Furthermore, robustness tests using alternate variables and an alternative index of disruptive financial technology also validated the key findings. Panel cointegration tests confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Additionally, the heatmaps in Origin 2024 visually reveal country-specific disparities in disruptive financial technology. The analysis incorporated several noteworthy control variables, such as the business environment, government stability, BRIGC (Belt and Road Initiative Green Development Coalition of 2019), renewable energy transition, credit union deposits, business loans, and environmental protection expenditures. The findings highlight the constructive role of disruptive financial technology, aligned with innovation and technological change theory, in shaping green development across the full BRI panel, Africa, and Asia, grounded in the green growth theory perspective of net-zero development. Furthermore, the modern Belt and Road spillover, drawing on the foundations of soft power and social exchange theories, plays a positive role in the green development for full BRI panel and subregions. Additionally, the moderating interaction term effect of disruptive financial technology and modern Belt and Road spillover is significant and positive for the global full BRI panel and Europe, whereas Asia and Africa require further improvements. This research highlights the need to align disruptive financial technology with green standards and to increase tech-driven green investments in Asian and African countries to support green development in view of COP29. It also suggests enforcing government stability, advancing technology-by-governance, fostering a better business environment, environmental taxation, and green lending to achieve the modern Belt and Road targets, net-zero pathways, and the sustainable development goals of 2030.
Iftikhar et al. (2026) studied this question.