FEATURED ARTICLE: The Creative Process in Picasso's Guernica Sketches: Monotonic Improvements versus Nonmonotonic Variants

Abstract A controversy has emerged over whether Picasso's sketches for Guernica illustrate a Darwinian process of blind-variation and selective-retention (i.e., nonmonotonic variants), rather than a more systematic, expertise-driven process (i.e., monotonic improvements). This issue is objectively addressed by having judges (1 pro-Darwinian, 2 anti-Darwinian, and 2 neutral) rank the figural components according to their perceived progress toward the final version of the painting. Besides strongly agreeing on the perceived order (composite progress score alpha = .85), the independent judges concurred that this order was conspicuously nonmonotonic, with minimal tendency to converge on the end result. These conclusions held not only for the sketches as a whole, but also for the sequence of sketches for the separate figural elements of the painting. Hence, Picasso's creative process is best described as producing blind nonmonotonic variants, rather than expert monotonic improvements. The general method used in this study can be extended to other documentary evidence—such as musical sketches, literary drafts, and laboratory notebooks—to determine the extent to which creativity operates in a Darwinian manner.