This study examines the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as a critical case study, constructing comprehensive evaluation frameworks for both ecological environment and tourism economy. We calculate the integrated development levels of both systems from 2010 to 2024, employing entropy weighting to derive composite development indices, Coupling Coordination Degree modeling to quantify the intensity and quality of system interactions, Relative Development Degree modeling to characterize coordination typologies and developmental asymmetries, and Grey Relational Analysis to identify key driving factors. Our findings reveal that although the coupling coordination of Xinjiang’s tourism–ecological system has transitioned from “mild imbalance” to “marginal coordination”, the system exhibits pronounced vulnerability and persistent “tourism-lag” dynamics. To effectively leverage the current “strategic window” of ecological surplus, we propose a multi-dimensional transformation pathway: (1) enhancing digital resilience through intelligent monitoring systems to mitigate external mobility shocks; (2) optimizing spatial connectivity via a “fast transit, slow travel” infrastructural paradigm; (3) institutionalizing micro-scale ecological governance to position oasis cities as sustainable “ecological gateways”; and (4) catalyzing deep cultural-tourism integration, shifting from scale-driven sightseeing to value-driven Silk Road heritage experiences. These pathways furnish a clear blueprint for Xinjiang to achieve high-quality, sustainable regional tourism development while maintaining its strategic positioning as a northwestern ecological security barrier.
Guo et al. (2026) studied this question.