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May 19, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Public Spending and Economic Growth Nexus: Recent Evidence from Nigeria

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UEU. O. EffiongUUUbong UdonwaEGEmaeyak George

Key Points

  • This research aims to analyze the relationship between government expenditure, corruption, and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data.
  • Utilized annual time series data from 1996 to 2024
  • Employed Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) due to higher order of integration
  • Disaggregated government expenditure into capital and recurrent components to analyze effects
  • Total government expenditure negatively impacted economic growth insignificantly.
  • Capital expenditure had a significant positive effect, while recurrent expenditure negatively affected growth.
  • Corruption consistently exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth.

Abstract

Abstract This paper utilized annual time series data from 1996 to 2024 to explore the effect of government expenditure and corruption on Nigeria’s economic growth. The study employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) since our variables recorded higher order of integration. From the result, it was observed that total government expenditure negatively impacted on Nigeria’s economic growth insignificantly while corruption exerted a statistically significant negative effect. By disaggregating government expenditure into function (capital and recurrent) components, our result portrayed that while capital expenditure exerted significant positive effect on economic growth, the recurrent component exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Further disaggregating the model into sectoral basis portrayed that while expenditure on economic services and that of social and community services are growth-enhancing, government expenditure administration and transfers do not spur growth. In all these disaggregation’s, corruption still exerts deleterious significant effect on Nigeria’s economic growth. The paper therefore recommended the need to reallocate government expenditure, improve efficiency of government spending and strengthen institutions, prioritize spending, enhance transparency and accountability, and monitor and evaluate public spending. Keywords: Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, Corruption, Institutions, FMOLS

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Cite This Study

Effiong et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0bfdc7166b51b53d379189https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20254630
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