A dynamic epidemic model estimated the basic reproductive number of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Taiwan to be 1.37, and simulated that a 100% isolation strategy could reduce total cases by 13.3%.
A dynamic SIR model estimates the basic reproductive number of HFMD in Taiwan to be 1.37 and demonstrates that isolation strategies can delay the epidemic peak and reduce total cases.
Effect estimate: 1.37 (95% CI 0.24-5.84)
The first large outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with severe complications primarily caused by enterovirus 71 was reported in Taiwan in 1998. Surveillance of HFMD to evaluate the spread of HFMD with and without infection control policy is needed. We developed a new dynamic epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to fit the surveillance data on containing valuable information on the severity of HFMD in order to accurately estimate the basic reproductive number (R 0) of HFMD. After fitting the empirical data, in conjunction with other relevant parameters extracted from the literature, the estimated transmission coefficients were close to 5 × 10-7 (per day) and the proportion of severe HFMD cases ranged between 0 and 0·0036 (per day). Taking into account the distribution of all parameters considered in our dynamic epidemic model, the R 0 computed was 1·37 (95% confidence interval 0·24-5·84), suggesting a higher likelihood of the spread of HFMD if no infection control policy is provided. The isolation strategy against the spread of HFMD not only delayed the epidemic peak with the delayed time ranging from 4 weeks for only 20% isolation to 47 weeks for 100% isolation but also reduced total number of HFMD cases with the percentage of reduction ranging from 1·3% for only 20% isolation to 13·3% for 100% isolation. The proposed model can also be flexible for evaluating the effectiveness of two other possible policies for containing HFMD, quarantine and vaccination (if the vaccine can be developed).
Lai et al. (2015) studied Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) (n=22,958,360). Isolation strategy vs. No isolation was evaluated on Basic reproductive number (R0) (1.37, 95% CI 0.24-5.84). A dynamic epidemic model estimated the basic reproductive number of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Taiwan to be 1.37, and simulated that a 100% isolation strategy could reduce total cases by 13.3%.