The iron and steel industry in developing economies is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and faces urgent pressure to decarbonize. Using Egypt as a case study, this research presents a cradle-to-grave Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate and compare the efficacy of alternative decarbonization pathways for fabricated steel production, based on primary data from a major production plant. A baseline scenario of 2,373.99 kgCO₂e/t was established for the raw material supply, transport, and manufacturing stages (A1–A3), against which five alternative scenarios were modeled, individually assessing key parameters: recycled steel content (30% and 100%), local raw material sourcing, renewable electricity integration, and plasma cutting technology. The results demonstrate that an integrated strategy, combining the most effective intervention from each lifecycle stage, achieves the deepest carbon reduction, lowering emissions across the raw material extraction through production phases by 56.5% to 1,033.64 kgCO₂e/t. A sensitivity analysis established a clear hierarchy of impact, identifying recycled content as the most powerful lever (Sij = 0.60), while transport distance and the specific renewable energy mix showed negligible sensitivity. The study concludes that the optimal decarbonization pathway is a paradigm shift from incremental measures to a prioritized strategy. This strategy must center on a fundamental commitment to the circular economy via maximized recycled content, decisively supported by a transition to renewable energy, while treating supply chain localization as a secondary measure. These findings offer an evidence-based roadmap for industry stakeholders and policymakers to align industrial growth in developing economies with climate commitments.
Harb et al. (2026) studied this question.