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March 6, 2014Technological Forecasting and Social Change150 citationsOpen Access

Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

EKElmar KrieglerNPNils PetermannVKVolker Krey

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Abstract

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

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Cite This Study

Kriegler et al. (2014) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a101f9664e8141cd2600be8https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
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