A Long-Term Study of What Best Predicts Graduating From University Versus Leaving Prior to Graduation

Despite the importance of obtaining a university degree, retention rates remain a concern for many universities. This longitudinal study provides a multi-domain examination of first-year student characteristics and behaviors that best predict which students graduate. Graduation status was assessed seven years after students entered university. Participants (N = 1017; 71% female; mean age in Year 1 was 19 years) enrolled in a Canadian mid-sized university completed a survey, provided their enrollment status over the next 6 years (regardless of whether they left university), and consented to have their grades and status provided by the Registrar. Overall, 79% of students graduated by Year 7 (44% in 4 years). The strongest predictor of graduation was first-year grades. Social engagement in the university also predicted graduation. Surprisingly, mental health was not a significant predictor of graduation. Only a minority of students may experience mental health difficulties to such an extent that it affects their ability to succeed at university.