From Unity to Fragmentation? OECD Country Groupings During Successive Crises (2019–2024)

Abstract This study examines the macroeconomic cohesion and heterogeneity of OECD countries from 2019 to 2024 using cluster analysis based on key economic, social, and institutional indicators. The methodology identifies clusters reflecting similarities in macroeconomic patterns, while accounting for differences in wage-setting, governance, and policy uncertainty. Results show that Nordic, Benelux, and Oceania countries exhibited consistently high internal cohesion, whereas Central, Southern European, Balkan countries, Israel, and Turkey displayed more variable cluster membership, reflecting substantial heterogeneity in economic development. The Baltic states showed increasing cohesion from 2022, while Latin American OECD members remained largely dispersed. Cluster stability varied across years, highlighting descriptive differences rather than causal relationships, but offering insights into responses to overlapping shocks, including pandemics, geopolitical tensions, and climate policy uncertainty. These findings contribute to understanding uneven convergence among advanced economies and provide guidance for policymakers in evaluating macroeconomic stability, structural differences, and resilience under global uncertainty.