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May 25, 2026Journal of Forecasting0 citations

Quantum‐Inspired Chimp Optimizer Evolving Kernel Extreme Learning Machine for Financial Risk Prediction: A Case Study on Bankruptcy

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YLYuchun LiMKMohammad KhisheHAHalmat Ayub

Key Points

  • This research aims to improve bankruptcy prediction through enhanced hyperparameter optimization for kernel extreme learning machines.
  • Developed a quantum-inspired chimp optimization algorithm for hyperparameter tuning of KBELM.
  • Evaluated the hybrid model, KBELM-QICHOA, using nested cross-validation on real-world datasets.
  • Compared performance against five benchmark models including conventional KBELM.
  • KBELM-QICHOA outperformed competing models with higher prediction accuracy and stability (lower RMSE).
  • Demonstrated superior performance in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and bias metrics compared to alternative approaches.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Kernel‐based extreme learning machines (KBELMs) have demonstrated great potential in predicting bankruptcy because of their rapid learning capability and the ability to model nonlinear financial relationships. However, the predictive performance of KBELM is very sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters, and the traditional tuning strategies tend to have the shortcomings of early convergence and insufficient search space exploration. To overcome these problems, this study proposes a quantum‐inspired chimp optimization algorithm (QICHOA) for effective hyperparameter optimization of KBELM, and the resultant hybrid model is called KBELM‐QICHOA. The proposed optimizer is an improvement of the classical chimp optimization algorithm by adding quantum‐inspired mechanisms for better global search capability and balancing exploration and exploitation. The performance of KBELM‐QICHOA is evaluated using two real‐world bankruptcy datasets, that is, Wieslaw dataset and Japanese bankruptcy dataset, under a nested cross‐validation framework. The proposed model is compared with five benchmark approaches, which are conventional KBELM, KBELM‐HFDO, KBELM‐HAOA, KBELM‐RCGWO, and KBELM‐IPBBO. Experimental results show that KBELM‐QICHOA is significantly better than competing models in terms of prediction accuracy, robustness and stability in terms of RMSE, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSEF), and bias. The results show that combining quantum‐inspired optimization with kernel‐based learning has a significant impact on improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. The proposed KBELM‐QICHOA framework therefore constitutes a reliable and economically meaningful early warning tool for the financial risk assessment and decision support.

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Cite This Study

Li et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a13e8d20e02ee3982d336cahttps://doi.org/10.1002/for.70171
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