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May 26, 20260 citationsOpen Access

The Doomsday Argument: Anthropic Reasoning and the Future of Humanity

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MMMirza Adnan Mohtashim

Key Points

  • The paper aims to analyze the Doomsday Argument and its implications for humanity's future.
  • Comprehensive philosophical review of the Doomsday Argument and its origins.
  • Examination of major criticisms and anthropic paradoxes related to the argument.
  • Discussion of implications for existential risk and long-termism.
  • The Doomsday Argument suggests humanity's future may be shorter than expected based on our population position.
  • Critiques highlight challenges such as the reference class problem and prior information objection.
  • Connections to various anthropic paradoxes raise important considerations for existential risk assessment.

Abstract

This philosophical review provides a comprehensive analysis of the Doomsday Argument — a provocative thought experiment suggesting that humanity’s future is likely much shorter than commonly assumed based on our temporal position among all humans who will ever live. The paper traces its origins (Carter, Leslie, Gott, Bostrom), formalizes the argument under Self-Sampling Assumption (SSA) and Self-Indication Assumption (SIA), examines major criticisms (reference class problem, prior information objection), explores connections to anthropic paradoxes (Boltzmann Brain, youngness paradox, anthropic shadow, measure problem), and discusses implications for existential risk assessment and long-termism. An excellent resource for researchers in philosophy of science, cosmology, and existential risk studies.

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Cite This Study

Mirza Adnan Mohtashim (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1539ccb5d9c58d83e8ce4bhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20361573
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