Introducing a Safety Assessment to Support the Safe and Efficient Integration of Launch and Re-Entry Operations in Europe

The expected rise in space operations challenges the European Air Traffic Management (ATM), as traditional static airspace segregation causes operational inefficiencies. To mitigate this, a new function within the European Network Manager Operations Centre (NMOC), supported by the novel Network Real-time Mission Monitoring (N-RMM) tool, and complemented by ad hoc Debris Response Areas (DRAs), are being developed. This paper introduces the safety assessment of this approach using the Expanded Safety Reference Material (E-SRM) methodology. By developing specialised Accident Incident Models (AIMs) for mid-air collisions with space debris, we quantify safety barrier efficiencies and define a Risk Classification Scheme (RCS). The results indicate that by developing dedicated AIMs for the proposed dynamic airspace-management concept, the derived safety criteria, under the stated assumptions, are compatible with the targeted safety thresholds. The potential reduction in segregated airspace volume and duration remains an expected operational benefit to be quantified in subsequent validation work.