Modeling Stage–Discharge Rating Curves in Andean Basins: Contrasting Uncertainty and Spatial Validation Between Artificial Neural Networks and Empirical Methods

Continuous streamflow monitoring is fundamental for water management in high-mountain Andean basins. Traditionally, this process relies on empirical regressions, although artificial intelligence (AI) has recently emerged as a robust alternative. However, extreme geomorphological dynamics compromise classical hydraulic methods, while AI models frequently lack physical validation. In this context, this study compares the performance of Artificial Neural Networks against traditional methods to reduce uncertainty in stage–discharge rating curves. The methodology, applied to a nested basin scheme in Loja, Ecuador, contrasted traditional exponential fits with a Multilayer Perceptron optimized using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The analysis included the evaluation of uncertainty bands and a sub-hourly spatial validation based on the principle of mass conservation. Results evidence that AI refines statistical accuracy (NSE > 0.95) and effectively adapts to bed non-linearity; nevertheless, cross-validation revealed a high susceptibility to algorithmic overfitting. It is concluded that while AI offers superior analytical flexibility for interpolating non-linear dynamics, traditional methods remain more robust for extreme flood extrapolation. Furthermore, while AI reduces computational complexity, it entails a higher “data cost” requiring denser field gauging campaigns. Operational viability requires rigorous dynamic uncertainty controls and spatial water balance validation.