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This study investigated the relationship between the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Part I and Part II examination scores and subsequent performances on the 1991 certification examinations of the American Boards of Orthopaedic Surgery (ABOS), Dermatology (ABD), and Preventive Medicine (ABPM). There were significant correlations between scores on all specialty board examinations and all NBME scores, with higher correlations for subscores more closely related to specialty content. Both NBME Part I and NBME Part II were useful predictors; however, the relationships with NBME Part II were generally stronger. Strong relationships were observed between specialty board pass-fail outcomes and NBME scores: examinees whose NBME scores were below 400 were at much greater risk for failing their specialty board examinations.
Case et al. (1993) studied this question.