Accurate prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) in cropland is important for food production, sustainable soil management, and carbon sequestration. Although digital soil mapping (DSM) has been widely used in the prediction of SOC, most of the current DSM studies use only a single remote sensing image and a single machine learning (ML) approach, and few studies apply multi-temporal remote sensing images and ensemble methods. This study explores the accuracy of the prediction of surface SOC in cropland by comparing multi-temporal Sentinel-2A remote sensing with random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT), extreme gradient boosted decision trees (XGBoost), and a stacking ensemble method consisting of these four ML approaches. The potential of multi-temporal remote sensing data and the stacking ensemble method for SOC prediction is discussed. To this end, 76 sampling points were selected in the study area, soil samples were collected at depths of 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm for each soil profile, and a total of 152 soil samples were obtained. Remote sensing variables extracted from topography, climate, and Sentinel-2A images on 13 January and 31 August 2023 were used as predictor variables. The results showed that the stacking ensemble method with multi-temporal predictor variables outperformed all single models and variable combinations. However, the overall predictive accuracy remained moderate, with the best performance for 0–10 cm (R2 = 0.386, RMSE = 4.782, MAE = 3.36) and 10–20 cm (R2 = 0.425, RMSE = 4.484, MAE = 4.031). The relatively low R2 values, despite the use of advanced methods, highlight the inherent challenges of SOC prediction in highly fragmented karst croplands. This study demonstrates the incremental benefit, rather than a universal high accuracy, of combining multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery with a stacking ensemble to improve SOC mapping in such complex environments.
Li et al. (2026) studied this question.