Geopolitical Risk: A Framework for Institutional Investors

Geopolitical risk has become a first-order concern for institutional investors, yet the profession lacks both a coherent framework for addressing it and the foundational knowledge to operate one effectively. This paper proposes a three-part framework organized around positioning, process, and people. The positioning analysis argues that geopolitical risk affects different investors in fundamentally different ways, depending on their investment horizon, liquidity profile, investment beliefs, position relative to geopolitical fault lines, and available resources. Any serious approach must begin by acknowledging these differences. The process section presents a three-layer analytical methodology, adapted from the intelligence and defence communities: diagnosis through net assessment, scenario-building through strategic foresight, and stress testing through wargaming and simulations. The people section argues that these tools and frameworks will only be as effective as the professionals who operate them, and it presents evidence that the investment profession has yet to develop the foundational geopolitical literacy needed to use them well. The paper discusses practical steps that the institutional investor should take in order to properly implement the proposed framework.