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May 27, 2026European Journal of Dermatology0 citations

Comparison of the predictive efficacy of traditional and novel obesity indices for risk of psoriasis: emerging promise for metabolic score for visceral fat and effect modification by diabetes

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YQYang QinWZWei ZhangGZGuoqing Zhang

Key Points

  • This research aims to compare traditional and novel obesity indices for their predictive value regarding psoriasis risk.
  • Analyzed data from 8,770 NHANES participants.
  • Evaluated associations between obesity indicators and psoriasis risk using weighted logistic regression.
  • Assessed model performance through ROC area under the curve and conducted subgroup analyses with restricted cubic splines.
  • METS-VF showed the highest AUC in predicting psoriasis risk.
  • Identified a critical threshold of 6.6 for METS-VF, with an optimal cutoff value of 6.17, yielding sensitivity of 69.2% and specificity of 42.8%.
  • Stronger associations with psoriasis risk were noted in individuals ≤45 years, with moderate income and hypertension, especially those without diabetes (interaction p=0.022).

Abstract

Psoriasis is associated with visceral adiposity and metabolic dysfunction. Conventional indicators, including body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), are inadequate with regards to assessment of visceral fat metabolism. Emerging indices, such as metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) or visceral fat (METS-VF), may be better suited to evaluate visceral adipose metabolism, however, their comparative predictive value for psoriasis remains unclear. To compare associations between traditional and emerging obesity indicators and risk of psoriasis, and identify optimal predictors. Data from 8,770 participants in the NHANES were analysed. Associations between obesity indicators and psoriasis risk were evaluated using weighted logistic regression. Model performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC), with 95% confidence intervals and pairwise comparisons adjusted using DeLong's test. Subgroup analyses and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to explore heterogeneity and dose response for the best indicator. Threshold effects were examined using piecewise linear regression. Psoriasis patients showed significantly higher BMI, WC, and METS-VF. All three indicators were positively associated with risk of psoriasis, with METS-VF demonstrating the highest AUC. RCS analysis demonstrated a linear dose-response relationship between METS-VF and psoriasis risk, while piecewise regression further identified a critical threshold of 6.6. The optimal cutoff value was 6.17, yielding a sensitivity of 69.2% and specificity of 42.8%. Subgroup analysis showed stronger associations in individuals ≤45 years, with moderate income, hypertension and without diabetes (significant interaction: p=0.022). Compared to traditional obesity indices, METS-VF demonstrates a significant and consistent association with risk of psoriasis, which is modulated, in particular, by diabetes status.

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Cite This Study

Qin et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a168b040c924ddd1bd59d79https://doi.org/10.1684/ejd.2026.5045
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