Counting bodies, preventing war: Future conflict and the ethics of fatality numbers

With conflict prevention as a commonplace agenda of international organisations, numerous instruments for gathering knowledge about potential armed conflict have emerged. This article focuses on the mode of knowing war through quantification in the form of fatality statistics or ‘death counts’, which are taken by analysts and policymakers to indicate the severity and extent of conflicts. Drawing on official documents and interviews, I argue that fatality numbers are productive of the reality of violent conflict as they shape what counts as conflict and what does not. In the reporting by prevention actors, such numbers indicate past and future trends of armed violence and, in this way, bolster the imperative to prevent by creating quantified futures of conflict. However, fatality numbers also normalise deadly violence as a baseline criterion, thus also limiting the scope of what is known as future conflict and omitting lived experiences from the abstractions behind such numbers.